2013 Mr. Olympia – John Hansen’s Predictions
In the movie “Casino”, Robert DeNiro portrays a character that was based on the true life story of Frank “Lefty” Rosenthal, a gambling mastermind who ran Las Vegas for the mob for many years. Rosenthal was a genius at picking the winning team or individual in a sporting event. He would study every aspect of the players involved, the coaches, the weather conditions, the playing field, the trends, etc, etc.
When it comes to predicting this year’s Mr. Olympia contest, one of the most highly anticipated Olympia’s since I began following the sport way back in 1977, it’s next to impossible to know exactly what’s going to happen. Bodybuilding is all about what each competitor looks like on the day of the show. It doesn’t matter what they look like in their hotel room two hours before the contest or what they look like in the gym after a full blown chest workout. What matters is how they stack up onstage and under the lights on Friday, September 27th and Saturday, September 28th, 2013.
Ever since Jay Cutler surprisingly dethroned Ronnie Coleman at the 2006 Mr. Olympia contest, the sport’s number one prize has been up for grabs each year. There are no “you have to knock the champ out to beat him” scenarios any more. Cutler himself learned this when he was both roundly criticized by fans on the internet after his narrow victory over Victor Martinez in 2007 and then his loss of the title to Dexter Jackson one year later when he again missed his peak.
The days of the incumbent champ (Lee Haney, Dorian Yates and Ronnie Coleman) winning every single year, even if they were off, no longer exist. Now, in order to win the Mr. Olympia title, you have to EARN it. If you are off in today’s contest, even if you are the reigning champ, you could lose it!
This provides a very exciting scenario for the 2013 Mr. Olympia. The current Mr. Olympia, Phil Heath, who seemed so dominating only a few short years ago when he beat Jay Cutler for the title, now seems very vulnerable. Kai Greene pushed Phil very, very hard last year and came close to knocking out the champ after Friday’s prejudging. Add in a returning and very hungry Jay Cutler and a young genetic freak who has shocked the bodybuilding world with his amazing physique and you have more drama than an Oscar-winning movie.
Most bodybuilding fans and experts agree that the top four at the Mr. Olympia this year will be Phil Heath, Kai Greene, Jay Cutler and Ramy (Mamdouh Elssbiay). However, what about the other 15 bodybuilders who will be competing in the contest this year? Where will they stack up in this extremely deep and competitive field? Here are my predictions for all the competitors in this year’s Mr. Olympia contest.
19th Place: Baitollah Abbaspour
The winner at the recent Nordic Pro Championships, Abbaspour has an excellent physique with an impressive vacuum and great conditioning. However, as Dave alluded to in his interview with Baitollah after his win in Finland, he would probably be better off dropping some weight and competing in the 212 division. At the open Mr. Olympia, he will place at the bottom due to his limited exposure and lack of size.
18th Place: Johnnie Jackson
Johnnie Jackson, who is second in the point standings with 20 points, is a great bodybuilder. Regardless of that, someone has to place near the bottom in this event and this year it will be him. Jackson has some freaky thickness and mass in his upper body, particularly his chest, back and traps, however, his somewhat narrow structure and his out of proportion leg development will hurt him in a line-up stacked with this much talent. If Jackson shows up with stellar conditioning and more size in the wheels, he could prove me wrong.
17th Place: Cedric McMillan
Cedric is one of my favorite bodybuilders competing today. His massive physique reminds me of the golden age of bodybuilding when legends like Schwarzenegger and Haney would dominate competitions with their incredible structures, superior muscle mass and outrageous proportions. I thought his low placing in the Arnold Classic this year was a travesty. Entering that show as a heavy favorite, he was beaten by bodybuilders who had half his size, shape and structure, all because he holding a slight film of water and he wasn’t dark enough. It’s been that kind of year for Cedric, a year in which he was disqualified from competing in the Arnold Classic Spain because he showed up for the athlete’s meeting late. He did redeem himself by winning the FIBO Power show but then he looked tired and flat when he could only manage 12th place at the competitive New York Pro.
McMillan has been off everyone’s radar screen for months, so the judges certainly won’t be looking for him to stand out at the Mr. Olympia. I’m hoping he’s pissed off and hungry and has been killing himself in the gym these weeks leading to the Olympia, but I doubt it. I have a feeling Cedric will come in laid back and off top condition instead of huge and ripped. If I’m right, he will be in the last callout.
16th Place: Essa Obaid
I saw Essa compete twice this year, at the Chicago Pro Show and the Tampa Pro Show. He was impressive in both competitions. Essa made significant improvement from Chicago to Tampa and I thought he should have been placed second to winner Evan Centopani. One week later, Essa got even harder and was a very close second to Steve Kuclo at the Dallas Europa. Essa often competes thick and gnarly but his strategy this year of coming in even leaner has helped to bring out more conditioning in his back and bring his waistline in even more. Unfortunately, based on his hard luck placings this year, I think Essa will have a very difficult time making that top 15 even if he shows up in outstanding condition. If he comes in a little soft, look for him to place even lower.
15th Place: Roelly Winklaar
Roelly was very impressive winning the Chicago Pro Show this year. He is a true genetic freak with amazing thickness in his legs, arms and delts. He needs to be both full and hard in order to really showcase his incredible genetic gifts. If he can peak perfectly for the Olympia, he could easily move up into the top ten. However, Roelly has a history of hitting his peak at one show and then wildly missing the mark at the next show and I’m predicting that is what will happen at the Olympia this year.
14th Place: Lionel Beyeke
Lionel is another genetically superior bodybuilder who is frustrating to watch because he has so many gifts but he can’t seem to get it together to realize his vast potential. With incredibly round and full muscle bellies, Lionel always seems to be too soft to really display what his physique has to offer. However, that seems to be changing this year since Dennis James came in to help Lionel out. After placing a disappointing fifth at the Tampa Pro, Dennis worked with Lionel every day for a week and dramatically changed his appearance for the Europa Supershow in Dallas only one week later. Lionel was much harder and moved up to third place. At the Nordic Pro Championships, he placed a disappointing second to Baitollah Abbaspour. If Lionel is still following DJ’s coaching, he should be in even better condition for the Olympia and should place convincingly in the middle of the pack in this very tough line-up.
13th Place: Evan Centopani
Evan has the size, shape and structure to go very far in bodybuilding. He was 8th place last year in the Olympia because he was too flat. At the Tampa Pro this year, he hit his peak by showing up onstage much thicker and fuller. He will need to nail that condition again for the Mr. Olympia if he even hopes to crack the top ten because of the extremely deep field of competitors. Evan recently showed off a bruised pec muscle which might be a slight tear. Hopefully, this will not affect his training and he can step onstage at the Olympia even better than he was in Tampa.
With all his genetic gifts, if Evan comes into this show full of fire and desire, he can really upset many of the favorites. If, however, he is more relaxed because of his recent win and he has to pull back a little due to his pec injury, he won’t make that coveted top ten.
12th Place: Steve Kuclo
Steve is another bodybuilder with incredible potential. He is tall with a great structure, excellent muscle mass and shape and he’s still very young. Many are saying Kuclo is a future Mr. Olympia winner with all his gifts. Earning his pro card in 2011, this will be Steve’s first Mr. Olympia contest. His recent win over a shredded Essa Obaid is a good indication that the judges like his look. If he can come in even more dialed in for the Olympia, he could be knocking on that top ten spot and possibly move ahead of some of the veterans like Toney Freeman and Branch Warren. Kuclo has been posting workout pics on Facebook and Instagram and he looks like he’s psyched up and ready for his Olympia debut, so I’m predicting he will be in his best shape ever.
11th Place: Branch Warren
Branch Warren out of the top ten?? I don’t know if the judges will place Branch this low but it’s very possible that the physique he brings to the stage this year may not warrant a placing in that coveted top ten. Branch has consistently placed in the top five at the Mr. Olympia for years, even earning second place in 2009, as well as winning the Arnold Classic title twice. Never the most aesthetic or shapely physique, Branch was able to place high by virtue of his incredible thickness and grainy conditioning.
However, the Branch Warren physique that garnered those accolades has regressed significantly over the last year. Between muscle tears and the imbalance in his quads from his injury over a year ago, Branch just doesn’t have the same physique he had in the past. Many felt that Branch did not deserve to win the Arnold Classic in 2012 or even place as high as 5th later that year in the Olympia. Unless Branch can bring in his absolute best condition in this incredibly competitive show, I think he will place out of the top ten.
10th Place: Toney Freeman
The X-Man had a good year so far, placing 3rd at the Arnold Classic and 2nd at the Australian Pro and the Arnold Classic Brazil. He will have his hands full just trying to make the top ten at this year’s Mr. Olympia because there is so much talent. Toney has a great structure but he needs to hit his peak by coming in rock hard and with great fullness. Freeman is often flat onstage and, if that happens, he may not even make the top ten. The fact that Toney has not competed since the spring makes me believe that he will hit his peak for the Mr. Olympia this year and may surprise some people by his conditioning onstage.
9th Place: Victor Martinez
Victor is the comeback kid after having suffered through one setback after another this year. After spending seven months locked up in jail, Victor broke his arm in a freak accident just as he was starting to come back and regain his size. He did the best he could this year at the New York Pro but he was dramatically outsized by the debut of Big Ramy. However, Victor still presented a classic physique that was a streamlined version of his old self and he placed second in a very tough line-up.
Many people have written Victor off as being too old and past his prime but that just seems to motivate him even more. He has the heart and spirit of a champion and not too many people would have the mental strength to endure what Victor has these last few years. I think Victor has been hitting it hard in the gym since his disappointing finish at the New York Pro and he will step onstage much bigger at the Olympia and break into the top ten in one of the toughest line-ups in the history of the contest.
8th Place: Dennis Wolf
Dennis has not competed since last year when he took sixth place at the Mr. Olympia, followed by a second place finish at the Arnold Classic Europe and then winning the Prague Pro Show. Wolf has one of the best structures in the sport with his extremely wide shoulders, small waist and flaring quadriceps. After a full year of off season training, Big Bad Dennis should be even bigger than ever and could present a very dominating presence onstage if he hits his peak. A fully conditioned and massive Dennis Wolf could place as high as fifth in this deep line-up. If he is slightly off, he may slip to the bottom half of the top ten.
7th Place: Brandon Curry
Every Mr. Olympia contest has a surprise competitor who shocks everyone by showing up in outstanding condition and beating a lot of the perennial favorites. Last year, Shawn Rhoden surprised competitors and fans alike when he placed as high as third with his massive and aesthetic physique. This year, I am picking the genetic marvel Brandon Curry to place ahead of former top contenders like Wolf and Branch and move all the way up the Olympia ladder to 7th place.
Brandon has always possessed one of the most genetically pleasing physiques in the pro ranks with his combination of thickness, shape and incredible proportions. His “Myth Pose” is an eerie rendition of the creator of that pose, three-time Mr. Olympia Sergio Oliva. Curry has always been a bodybuilder with that “if only he came into condition” dilemma.This year, Curry did reach peak condition when he won the Arnold Classic Brazil and took first place. Will he be motivated enough to surpass that condition to do some damage at the Olympia? Recently married with a child, he certainly has the incentive now to provide for his new family. I’m hoping that his surprise win in Brazil will instill in Brandon the confidence and swagger he needs to show everyone that he is a force to contend with at the Olympia. If he comes in ready, he will be at the top.
6th Place: Dexter Jackson
Now we come to the top six for the 2013 Mr. Olympia. Making the posedown for this year’s Mr. Olympia is going to be quite a feat and only the best of the best will survive to the end of the night. Although Dexter is getting older and is well into his 40’s, he seems to be reaching the best condition of his life.
After placing a very strong 4th place in last year’s Mr. Olympia, he easily won the Masters Mr. Olympia in possibly the best shape of his life. In addition, Dexter held onto that condition several months later to win his fourth Arnold Classic title. Dexter, like Toney Freeman, has had several months off to prepare for this Mr. Olympia. He should be fully rested and, unlike many of the other competitors, Dexter has never had a problem peaking for a contest and coming in ripped and ready. I think Dexter will fight his way to a top sixth place finish in this extremely tough contest and he will compete in fantastic shape.
5th Place: Shawn Rhoden
Shawn Rhoden was the surprise at last year’s Mr. Olympia by placing third behind only Phil Heath and Kai Greene. Shawn combines superb aesthetic shape with size and thickness. He looks much bigger on stage than many of the other larger competitors because of his great shape and symmetry. Shawn is also an accomplished poser so he knows how to display his body during his posing routine and the mandatories for maximum effect. Going into this year’s Mr. Olympia contest, Shawn is one of the few bodybuilders who had a full year to prepare for only this show.
With a nice contract from Ronnie Coleman Signature Series supplements and working again with his nutritional guru Chris Aceto, Shawn is ready to compete in the Olympia looking even better than last year. Rhoden is not an expressive extrovert who brags about his accomplishments. He lets his body do the talking for him and I fully expect Shawn to look better than ever and shock some people with the body he displays on Olympia night.
4th Place: Kai Greene
Most people feel that any one of the predicted top four (Greene, Cutler, Ramy or Heath) could take that first place spot. Kai definitely has the potential to be Mr. Olympia but the deciding factor is his ability to nail his conditioning. At only 5’8”, Kai is currently a lean and ripped 300 pounds in the last few weeks leading to the Olympia.He will be the thickest and most massive bodybuilder onstage pound for pound but will it be enough to win the title? Last year, Kai reduced his weight and battled Phil down to the wire for the title. He seemed to flatten out a little for the Finals on Saturday night and this allowed enough room for Phil to come in and retain the title. Kai’s strategy this year is to come in overwhelmingly big and massive. However, will he be able to replicate that crazy conditioning from the 2009 Arnold Classic that everyone seems to feel was his absolute best shape?I think Kai is not going to be as peeled and dry as he needs to be, seeing he is this big only weeks out from the show. If those hams are a little soft and he isn’t striated and freaky enough to shock the judges, we may see Kai drop a few places from his runner-up slot from last year.
3rd Place: Mamdouh Elssbiay (aka “Big Ramy”)
The emergence of the “Big Young Freak” is always an exciting aspect of competitive bodybuilding. You never know when someone new is going to come out of the woodwork and surprise everyone by being the biggest and freakiest guy around. This provocative scenario came to fruition this year with the now legendary debut of Big Ramy at the New York Pro.At 5’11” and weighing over 300 pounds, this 26-year-old freak of nature from Egypt dominated the line-up by being bigger, wider and more massive than anyone on stage. What makes Ramy so special in the sport of bodybuilding is not only his size but also the incredible proportion and symmetry he displays. For such a big man, Ramy has a tight and streamlined midsection. His stomach is not distended even slightly and his abs are rock hard and thick. Standing relaxed to the front, Ramy is extremely imposing with his barnyard-wide shoulders tapering to a small waist and then expanding out to some of the biggest quadriceps ever seen onstage. With only a few years of training behind him, Ramy has a young physique in which his enormous muscles “pop” with each pose. Most of the older competitors will not be able to match the size, shape, proportions and fresh young muscle that Ramy will bring to the stage.Even more intimidating is that he is working with Dennis James who plans to bring Ramy to the Olympia even sharper and more polished than he was in New York. With DJ’s expert coaching on posing as well as his peaking expertise, Big Ramy will be the story of the year (decade) in the bodybuilding world. This is one Rookie Debut that will exceed everyone’s expectations!
2nd Place: Jay Cutler
The other Big Story of this year’s Mr. Olympia contest is the return of 4-time Mr. Olympia Jay Cutler. Jay is the most popular and beloved professional bodybuilder currently competing. The fans love Jay Cutler and his surprising victory in 2009 – after losing the title one year earlier – was one of the most exciting Mr. Olympia contests in history.The fans love the underdog story and Jay Cutler hopes to do the impossible this year by recapturing the title a second time (he lost to Phil Heath in 2011) and coming back from an injury (he tore his biceps right before his loss in 2011), all at the ripe old age of 40 years old. Jay fully believes he can come back and win again and he has been the only bodybuilder who has quietly been telling everyone that he will win the Mr. Olympia this year.
Jay Cutler will be the most experienced bodybuilder onstage at the Olympia, having competed in the Mr. Olympia twelve times, and he knows exactly what he needs to do to win. He is the mentor of the current champ Phil Heath and this year’s showdown is going to once again pit the student versus the teacher. The big question is what will Jay’s physique look like onstage? He is working again with his favorite coach, Chris Aceto, who started helping Jay when he was only a teenager and was responsible for his outstanding 2001 condition. Jay needs to exceed even his incredible 2009 condition by coming in full but shredded. His waist will be bigger than Kai’s, Phil’s or Ramy’s and he is older than all those competitors. To achieve victory, Jay needs to accentuate his strengths (his enormous width and size, his charisma and personality, his experience onstage) and downplay his weaknesses (his wide waist, his age, and his sometimes loose skin in the lower back).Hopefully, he is fully recovered from his biceps injury and his body is in the best condition of his life. If he can pull that off, he may be able to win the Mr. Olympia again and achieve the biggest comeback in the history of the sport! If he is slightly off, I think he may have to settle for the runner-up spot.
1st Place: Phil Heath
I have to admit that I am hoping Jay Cutler can achieve the impossible and take first place again. However, I must concede that Phil Heath is going to be very tough to dethrone.
Heath, who is going for his third title, has tremendous muscle fullness and hardness. He never misses his peak and always comes in ripped and ready. Although he is narrow across the clavicles, Phil has such amazing muscle volume and density that he looks nearly unbeatable when posing. Although he can be seen as cocky or even arrogant by some, Phil is extremely competitive and wants to win more than anyone. This was evident last year when Phil looked like he was going to physically attack Kai after learning the contest was close after the prejudging. Phil seemed to take the challenge personally and was ready to go to war by Saturday night.With a full year of off season training, I fully expect Phil Heath to be even better than last year and he will pull off a very close victory over fan favorites Jay Cutler, Big Ramy and Kai Greene. I’m sure he hears the talk (Phil is a big social media person on Twitter and Facebook) about the strength of the competition he will face this year and he is using it as fuel to train harder and look even better than ever before. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure this year from a much tougher line-up than he faced in 2012. If he can improve his condition from the previous year and display a confident winning attitude, I think Phil Heath will grab his third Sandow trophy at the Mr. Olympia this year.
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