Articles The Wennerstrom Report Winning The Overall NPC Women's Nationals In Bodybuilding: What Are The Chances?
Winning the over
all NPC Nationals is the crown jewel of contest victories annually, and it has been that way since the earliest days of this event. The title goes to the top amateur female bodybuilder of the year, and it leads to the fast track of being recognized as a competitor who will likely become a very competitive pro and even Ms. Olympia. Yes, it could happen. But what are the chances?
For purposes of this article we'll make 1990 (two dozen years ago) a starting point in looking at the annual numbers. The results during this 24-year span of time provide an interesting array of sometimes surprising facts as competitors from the four weight classes race for the coveted overall crown.
A Cherished Contest To Win
Through the 80's the entries of the Nationals and years when it was called the American Women's Bodybuilding Championships, the addition of weight classes went from one large group of competitors in 1980 to 1981 where there were just two – lightweight and middleweight classes with a break-off of under and over 114 pounds. But the addition of the third weight class in 1982 offered much greater opportunity for women to be judged among competitors closer to their size, as well as the accommodation of the growing numbers of competitors.
In 1984 and '85 a fourth class (the light-heavyweights) was added, before going back to three in 1986 to coincide with the IFBB weight class guidelines internationally. The popular light-heavyweight class was brought back in 2004.
Throughout the '80s the numbers of entries grew steadily. And during that decade, two Ms. Olympia winners emerged – Carla Dunlap in 1983 and Cory Everson in 1984. Everson's '84 victory was most impressive considering she won the first NPC National overall title after the AFWB-sanctioned years, and quickly won the Ms. Olympia crow
n the same year.
So, in 1990, after Everson had chalked up six consecutive Ms. O titles in the '80s, Lenda Murray took center stage through the early '90s after winning the overall IFBB North American Championships in 1990. Meanwhile, the NPC Nationals in 1990 saw Oregon's Nikki Fuller win the overall title and become a top pro. In 1990, 72 contestants entered the Nationals and it became a decade that witnessed a wild swing in entries from year to year. In 1992, 81 women entered the Nationals, while in 1995 and '97 the total entries topped out at just 42 in each of those years. The average for the decade of the '90s was 57 contestants per year.
With the coming of 2000, the NPC Nationals saw more growth. In 2003 the Nationals witnessed it biggest year with 82 entries and no year through 2009 saw less than 50 entries with a decade long average of 65 contestants per year. But since 2010, the numbers have suffered due in part to the recession along with the constant din of negativity directed towards women's bodybuilding, and more recently the addition of the Physique division. So, 42 entries competed in 2010 and 2012 – coincidentally the same numbers as '95 and '97 (each two years apart) – and a lowest-ever number of 30 last year.
So What Are The Chances of Winning the Overall Nationals Title?
Because of the notable fluctuation in entries from year-to-year using an example such as 2003 with 82 entries and 56 in 2004, trying to guess ho
w many entries there will be at any given Nationals is a gamble at best. But with the totals over the past four years and a low of 30 last year, it would seem likely that now is the best opportunity to take a shot at weight class titles and the overall crown. 2013 heavyweight and overall winner Victoria Dominguez topped 29 other competitors – a 30-1 chance. That's a considerably better bet than when heavyweight Annie Rivieccio won the overall title in 2003 against 81 other aspirants to the crown.
By the numbers, the best five years over the past two decades were 82 in 2003, 81 in 1993, 77 in 2006, 72 in 1990 and 70 in 2002. The smallest fields were 30 in 2013, 42 in 2012, 42 in 2010, 42 in 1997, 42 in 1995 and 47 in 1998. The overall average during the 24 years (1990 to 2013) has been 58 competitors per year.
Heavyweig
hts Dominate The Overall NPC National Terrain Since the '80s
So, who draws the lion's share of the judges votes when it comes down to four weight class winners standing on stage waiting for the final posedown to select an overall champion? Not surprisingly, it's the heavyweights… by a long shot.
Since weight classes were installed in 1981 and up to 2013, only four lightweights have laid claim to the overall NPC National title. Georgia's Charla Sedacca was the first lightweight to take home the overall trophy in 1987, and later that year she added the LW title at the IFBB World Amateur Championships.
Two years later Susan Myers used a sensational level of muscle to add another LW winner to the list of overall National champions. With the coming of the '90s, lightweight dynamos Sue Price and Michele Ralabate flexed their way to overall titles in 1993 and '94 respectively. Both became very successful pros before leaving the competitive stage. In Ralabate's case, she was and is the last lightweight to win the NPC National overall crown – a 20-year dry spell for that class.
The middleweight division hasn't fared much better. Carla Dunlap won the MW class in 1981, and it wasn't until 1992 – over a decade later – that Californian Drorit Kernes captured the overall title in convincing fashion. At the end of the 90's decade middleweights Brenda Raganot and Vilma Caez claimed the overall crowns in 1998 and '99 respectively. But that success was short-lived, and another MW has failed to win the overall over the past 14 years.
As for the light-heavyweight class, it's a very short list that includes Kristy Hawkin
s as the only LtHW to win the overall title in 2007 out-flexing future pros LW Beni Lopez, MW Tina Chandler and HW Bev DiRenzo.
The rest is left to the heavyweight class. And since this class was first included in 1982, 24 heavyweight women have walked away with the overall NPC National trophy. And along with Olympia winners Carla Dunlap and Cory Everson, the list of 24 also includes many well-known luminaries within the women's bodybuilding world such as Diana Dennis, Nicole Bass, Heather Foster, Annie Rivieccio and Sheila Bleck to name a few.
Now, with the coming of the 2014 NPC Nationals scheduled on November 21-22 in Miami, the fast-growing Physique division will once again take a major bite out of the bodybuilding entries. That said, it's a good bet those 30-1 odds will still be in place with a heavyweight class holding the keys to a potential overall winner. So, might there be a future Ms. Olympia in the field? That is the most unanswerable question of the year.
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